The Fear of Falling
Every night we remember the guy who falls on draft night. Who can that be in this class?
Year after year we all remember the guy who fell on draft night, waiting in the green room expecting to be selected in the lottery and falling as ESPN cameras pan to them relentlessly, with Cam Whitmore being the most recent example of this. Who are the guys who could fall in this year’s class?
Ron Holland - G League Ignite
Holland is someone who many people have inside their top 5. Frankly, I don’t see that level of hype due to the lack of quality decision-making and shooting from Holland, and I have him still in my top 10, but the idea that he is some version of Jaylen Brown as a prospect when Jaylen showed a level of athleticism that is higher than Holland, while also somehow playing in a system that was poorer than the Ignite. While Holland is one of the best athletes in this weaker class, Jaylen Brown is one of the best 25 athletes in the NBA, and Holland just isn’t that level of athlete. His athleticism not being quite as high as some make it out, along with his outright lack of playmaking, efficiency, and shooting, could mark Holland as a red flag prospect for many front offices, and I don’t see it as that unlikely of an outcome where he falls outside of the lottery, or even the top 20.
Holland has a high ceiling and he could end up being one of the best players in this class, but the odds that Holland isn’t a quality NBA player are higher than a lot of other prospects in the lottery, and for that reason, teams could be scared off.
Rob Dillingham - Kentucky
Dillingham was probably the most difficult evaluation for me in this entire class. I would feel comfortable in saying he is one of the 3 best offensive players in this class, but on the flip side, I would also feel comfortable in saying he is not only the worst defender in this class, but he is a contender for the worst defender I have evaluated in my last 3 years doing work for the NBA draft. Dillingham is a special ball handler and shot maker, but he stands at 6’1” and I struggle to decide if Dillingham is truly a point guard. His scoring game reminds me of Darius Garland. Both players are incredibly shifty, smaller ball handlers, but Garland is and was a far better passer than Dillingham has ever shown, and despite also being undersized and poor on defense, the Vanderbilt product still showed a better pedigree than his Kentucky counterpart.
This lack of defense and lack of positional versatility can make Dillingham a liability for teams who can’t insulate him in the playoffs, and depending on how the board shakes out, I could see teams not wanting someone who they don’t believe can develop these skills, making Dillingham slide down on draft night. I don’t see him likely to slide past Orlando at 18, as a scoring guard is exactly what they need, and they have the defensive infrastructure with Jonathan Isaac and Jalen Suggs to hide Dillingham on that end.
Isaiah Collier - USC
I really wish I liked Collier more. The USC point guard has a real ability to get downhill that you don’t see from many prospects at all, and I would consider it the best in this entire class. This skill will translate to the league immediately, but I struggle with finding other skills that will earn Collier playing time early. While he does have great burst with the ball in his hands, he is a bit one-dimensional as a driver, playing only bully ball, and doesn’t show the ability to decelerate, which is increasingly becoming the most important skill for a scorer in the league. Collier also struggled with turnovers this year. He made a lot of great passes, but he would also get overaggressive and drive himself into a poor situation, leading to a turnover.
The real red flag is Collier shooting and defense. Collier was often a non-factor as a shooter. He went through stretches where he could knock down threes at a respectable rate, but most of the time he was a non-factor from beyond the arc. Despite being a good athlete in a straight line, he didn’t show an ability to slide with his man on the defensive end and was often ball-watching, particularly later in the year when USC became an unserious basketball team. Occasionally he showed some motor earlier in the year before his injury, but it was not on a consistent enough basis for me to consider it a skill.
When you look at the number of teams in the 10-20 range who already have guards they have invested resources in or who are looking to win now, there is a chance Collier slides outside the top 20, potentially even to the 25-30 range. Of these three prospects, I would consider Collier the most likely player to slide outside of the 1st round, but I find the odds of that kinda low.