Neoklis Avdalas: The Incredibly Talented Greek Phenom
Greece is a country with a lot of good basketball. Greece’s top league, the HEBA Basket League, had two teams in Eurobasket.com’s European Top 100 in Olympiakos and Panathinaikos, both of whom made the Euroleague’s final four and were top 3 in the competition’s regular season. Despite this, there’s only one Greek player currently in the NBA in the best player to ever come from the nation in Giannis Antetokounmpo. Greece, despite having who has potentially the best player in the world in Giannis, hasn’t medaled in a FIBA World Cup or Olympic competition since Giannis has been on their roster.
Fewer domestic roster restrictions and more access to salary than your average Greek League team catapult the two powerhouses to the top, and the depths of Greece’s domestic league are much lower than some other leagues with fewer top-end teams like France, Italy, and Germany. This is more of the reason that there’s so little Greek NBA talent in the NBA, as the developmental infrastructure and basketball culture is much lower than, say, France, which, despite producing top talent in recent NBA Drafts, still lacks multiple top teams in the Euroleague.
There is some light in the darker Greek tunnel in Neoklis Avdalas. The 19-year-old, 6’9” wing has been signed to a Panathinaikos junior contract since he was 15 years old, and has been on loan to other teams in the Greek League over the past few seasons, playing what could very well be his last season in Greece before he is drafted with Peristeri, a lower level team that does tread water in the standings, where Avdalas got a chance to show off his skills.
48% AT RIM
Jumbo Ball Handler
If you turn on Avdalas’ tape, it is immediately clear what his upside is. There is a lot of Luka Doncic in Avdalas’ game aesthetically, to the point that Avdalas has made this comparison himself. Avdalas is not the level of prospect that Doncic was. At an age even younger than Avdalas, Doncic was playing as the number one option for Real Madrid, and winning MVP of the Euroleague, while Avdalas is a bench piece of a bottom-half team in the Greek League.
What I do think Avdalas can be is a bite-sized version of the Slovenian. If Luka Doncic is a nuclear power plant that energizes your entire offense, then maybe Avdalas is a little Energizer battery.
Avdalas has clear skills with the ball in his hands, consistently posting positive assist-to-turnover ratios since he was 16 years old, and showing some flashes of elite vision. Avdalas doesn’t play the role of a primary PG, instead driving offense via his scoring and making passes when it is the best decision to do so, but it is his clear go-to 2nd option. He can change pace very well, having a consistent handle with both hands, and can take shots off the dribble.
His hesitation is lethal, being excellent at freezing defenders while inside the lane and then having the ball security to continue his drive into the paint. His most Doncic-esque quality is his step-back out of the hesitation, and he knows that constantly leveraging this can exhaust defenders and lead to blowbys. Unlike a lot of younger ball handlers, the stepback isn’t a last resort option for Avdalas.
Avdalas’ most obvious issue is his finishing, as he only converted 48% of his shots at the rim this season. This is quite bad for someone of Avdalas’ size and is not the number you would want to see. I think Avdalas’ issues as a finisher stem from not a lack of touch, but a lack of strength and understanding of how to finish. Avdalas only weighed in at 197 pounds at the NBA’s combine, and this was a surprising number to me, as Avdalas has quite broad shoulders. This could very well be his natural body frame, which is very encouraging in his ability to put on muscle. If Avdalas adds true muscle to his naturally wide shoulders, he could put his shoulder into defenders and become much more physically dominant.
Avdalas can also outright force some layups as well, taking some shots that he just shouldn’t. I think these are much more fixable issues as a finisher than just a lack of true touch, as Avdalas has shown real finishing skill at the basket.
Wing Skills
Now, what if Avdalas doesn't develop into a handler at the NBA level who a team would at least want to give some keys to the offense to? Avdalas’ size gives him outs as a wing who makes connective plays.
Avdalas is very dominant in transition, grading out at the 96th percentile there. While he isn’t an elite athlete, he gets to his top speed very quickly and has natural fluidity with his ball skills and size to be a force.
He fills lanes well and has a good understanding of how to operate the break, often leaking out early once he knows his team has secured the rebound. He also has the near-unguardable transition hesitation move, and teams have to respect him pulling up.
Avdalas is also a good shooter already, shooting 36% this season overall, and 40% in his Greek League games. That does come with its fair share of pull-ups, but Avdalas’ shot off the catch is also quite good. His size and general basketball IQ also make him skilled as a cutter, where he converted at a 1.26 points per possession grade.
Avdalas shows a clear understanding of his role when he is off the ball, having a willingness to cut and also an understanding of where he needs to fill space to open up for three-point opportunities. If he develops into a very high-level shooter, his already advanced pull-up footwork can lead to skill as a relocator, being able to take one or two dribbles off the catch to open up three-point opportunities.
Defensive Woes
Avdalas’ defense isn’t great. Peristeri was last in the Greek League in defensive rating, and while they had no real rim protector, Avdalas only played in 18 minutes per game, and did post an individual defensive rating better than his team’s overall number, his defensive tape still isn’t great, and I worry about the level of defensive coaching Avdalas received in his time at Peristeri.
His rotations were often a bit late and left shooters open, and while I found his feel to be good in terms of when to help, he had little feel for when to close back out to shooters, lingering too long in the lane.
In scramble situations, the entire Peristeri team looked lost, and while Avdalas wasn’t the worst culprit here, he was a part of the team and would look lost in scramble situations.
On-the-ball Avdalas wasn’t much better, being naturally high hipped with arms that aren’t particularly long, only being 6’9”, which is +1.5 to his height in socks. His overall lateral footspeed isn’t stellar, but his technique is solid, and he gives some good effort. If you can iron out Avdalas’ off-the-ball process, I think he could become a positive defender due to making good rotations with his size.
Avdalas hops a little too much on his closeouts, often ending up on his heels, and he has some of the same issues with physically on the defensive end that he does on offense, needing to get stronger if he wants to improve as a helper. He offers some upside as a rim protector, even posting a block rate of 2.1% this year, the 2nd-best rate on his entire team. His size means he can get a hand on shots.
Outlook and Projection
So, where would I draft Avdalas? I have him just outside of my top 30, which is far higher than the average person. There is talent Avdalas has that is incredibly hard to find, and of the wing-sized ball handlers in this class, he is far less theoretical than Dink Pate, and younger than Kobe Sanders. He has production in a professional league with solid efficiency, and bankable skills in the NBA, with multiple outcomes for success. Avdalas isn’t pigeonholed to just being a ball handler, as his skill as a shooter gives him outs as an off-ball player, and is part of the reason I am much higher on him.
I have no idea where Avdalas will go on draft night or if he will even be there, as Avdalas himself said he is considering the college route. I’d be willing to bet on Avdalas’ talent this year if I were an NBA team, as I am not sure he would still be available in the 2nd round if he were to go to college this next season.