How on Earth is Ryan Dunn shooting like this?
Yes Ryan Dunn made 6 threes in one game. Also, notes on Nebraska and the podcast.
Ryan Dunn was one of my favorite players in last year’s draft class to think about. I wasn’t quite sure what his role was going to be, nor was I sure of him having true guaranteed production in the NBA. Just for those who don’t keep up with the draft or need a reminder of Dunn’s offensive level, here was my scouting report on him last season:
Could instantly defend on an NBA court, with room to grow (Anunoby-level ceiling potentially) Flies around the court, rotates timely, does it with anticipation, and forces turnovers. He was legitimately the best defender in college ball; if I threw him on an NBA court tomorrow I believe he would excel. and gets cut off he has to take a jump shot and that just isn’t good.
He is an awesome rebounder on offense or defense. He is super strong when rebounding, and he can crash on offense with tons of authority.
On the ball, he is also amazing. He uses his hip fluidity, length, and athleticism to completely smother offensive players at every level on defense.
Shot well in HS but has not in 2 years at UV. It looks boxy and his footwork begins wide and then comes closed. I don't know how to describe it. He is also out of rhythm. It looks bad and like a HUGE project. Gets to the FT line a solid amount and is making them at a 53% clip which shows even less promise to shoot.
His finishing is pretty awesome. He can go up with either hand and outright finish over people. He can get to the rim well off the ball. He dives well off of screens and can cut when stagnant as well. His handle is not bad at all. He can drive to the rim pretty well and get there. But if he is up against a better defender and gets cut off he has to take a jump shot and that just isn’t good.
So what does all that mean? Ryan Dunn was one of the two best defenders in college basketball last season. Dunn was passed up for the ACC DPOY last season for teammate Reece Beekman, which I found absolutely baffling, but Dunn and Jamal Shead were night in and night out two of the best defenders that college hoops have seen in recent years. His combination of size, fluidity, and instincts are rare, and I believe that given the right situation and role, Dunn could potentially win an NBA Defense Player of the Year Award one day. The median outcome for Dunn was likely one of a player like Matisse Thybulle, where the offensive limitations made it so he could never reach that ceiling, but the ability to mix and match defensive lineups provides value.
I had Dunn outside of my 1st round in this class, but cleanly inside my top 40 players who I perceived to deserve a guaranteed contract. When the Suns took the Virginia product of Dunn in the first round with the 22nd pick, it was something I was fine with. A team stacked with offensive firepower like the Phoenix roster could potentially insulate Dunn, with Dunn then providing them the needed defensive versatility to function better in the playoffs.
With all this being said, if you told me Ryan Dunn shot 44% from three-point range on 27 total attempts, I would call you insane. In fact, I might not have just called you insane, I may have called you insane, pointed and laughed, and then had nightmares about what a Ryan Dunn shooting 44% from 3 means for the NBA. The latter bit is the phase I am currently in.
I tend to not overreact to preseason games. For me, watching the preseason is more of a process than a results-based evaluation. The thing that scares me about Dunn is it isn’t just that the ball is going in the rim, it’s the way it’s going in. Dunn has taken shots he’d have never even thought of during his time at Virginia. I have watched Dunn take transition threes and step-back pull-ups, which is baffling to someone who watched a lot of his tape in college. He is shooting with real volume as well. At Virginia, Dunn only took 1 three a game during his last season, but this preseason, he is taking 6.8 threes per contest. Last night against the Nuggets, Dunn made 6 threes on 11 attempts. Sit back and enjoy those 6 makes.
Last year at Virginia Dunn only made 7 threes THE ENTIRE YEAR. To nearly equal your production from college in one game in the best league in the world is utterly absurd. I can’t quite tell you how this happened. It looks like Suns Head Coach Mike Budenholzer has empowered Dunn to shoot the ball and shoot it with confidence. Teams coached by Bud have often been near the top of the league in 3-point shots attempted, and I had no doubt Bud and his staff would empower Dunn to take these threes, I just assumed he wouldn’t make them.
The big thing to watch about Dunn’s preseason production is he is still only 50% from the free throw line. On 8 free throws, Dunn has only made 4, which matches his college production, but I am more inclined to trust the 27 shots of 3-point attempts rather than 8 free throws.
Dunn likely won’t be a sniper from deep, competing with the likes of teammate Grayson Allen, Steph Curry, and Luke Kennard for the 3-point percentage title, but if Dunn can come out and shoot even 35% on real volume as a rookie, he may not only return immediate value, he could be one of the 5 best players in this class.
I mentioned earlier in this article how I believed Dunn’s defensive ceiling was that of a DPOY. If Dunn is this capable as a shooter, along with his already existing skills as a transition finisher, I’d reckon him to be a starter in the Suns lineup by December. This means that Dunn could not only be a contender for the Rookie of the Year Award but for a potential All-Defense nod as well.
Let’s put ourselves in a world where Dunn immediately comes out and contributes on both ends of the floor, maintaining All-Defense level production for years, and remaining a solid offensive contributor who can play in starting lineups. Is he not a top 5 player in this class? Just to compare him to his contemporaries, a successful career for 1st pick Zaccharie Risacher looks similar to that of Harrison Barnes. The former Warrior and NBA champion was always a very common comparison for the Frenchman, and it was one I would draw as well. Ryan Dunn becoming of the best defenders in the league likely returns more value than that of Risacher.
All this being said, I am excited to see what Dunn can accomplish in this upcoming regular season. It would be huge not only for Phoenix, but Dunn himself to come out with this level of production.
Nebraska and Podcast Notes Going Into College Hoops:
I am very excited about this Nebraska squad! Fred Hoiberg’s Husker squad was able to add a lot of talent to last year’s NCAA Tournament team. Getting a bonafide NBA talent in Berke Buyuktencel through the portal was a major grab for Hoiberg, and multiple people I have talked to around the team say he is the most talented player in recent memory around the program that recently produced Brice McGowens. Bringing in other potential NBA talent Connor Essegian and Gavin Griffiths was big, and a big year from both could mean their name is called on draft night. Returnees Brice Williams and Juwan Gary both have an outside shot to make the league as well, with Williams sitting just inside my top 60 right now.
I was able to speak to quite a few members of the team, so be on the lookout for the Nebraska season preview with some special nuggets of info on the He Got Game Pod. You can expect our SEC Preview to come out tomorrow (10-15). The Big 10 Preview has already been recorded, and the Big East and ACC Previews will be coming before the season’s start as well. Be sure to keep a lookout for those.