Ajay Mitchell: Big Out West

UC Santa Barbara product Ajay Mitchell has a wide range of outcomes on draft night, but what makes Mitchell the player he is?

Much buzz is made in the draft space of the prospects at high-major, blue-blood schools. Those player’s games are on national TV every night, and you can simply turn on a Kentucky-Alabama game and see a ton of different things from multiple NBA prospects on the floor. Scouting mid-major stars can be a bit more difficult, along with international players occasionally being hard to find film on, but what about the lowest of the low? This is where we have our low-major stars; players who will average a clean 20 points a night or more against guys who might be your kid’s youth basketball coach in 15 years, or even your realtor. A lot of times the hidden gems in these leagues are former European products who played in the second division of many leagues across Europe and came to America to get a fresh start at basketball or their education. Ajay Mitchell from Santa Barbara was one of these players. Ajay grew up in Belgium, raised in a family of former Belgian basketball stars and All-Big Ten Volleyball players, where he would eventually be molded into one of the best young players in Belgium before he committed to UCSB. Once arriving on campus, he became one of the best players in the Big West, winning the conference’s Player of the Year in 2023 as a sophomore. Mitchell will likely be the first player drafted from the Big West since James Ennis in 2013. (If I told you James Ennis has 9 career playoff starts would you believe me?) Let’s jump into Mitchell’s film and see why he has the potential to go in the first round.

Unreasonable Comparisons:

You don’t even have to look at the tape to say that Mitchell is a great scorer. You can stat-line scout, look at the fact he averaged 20 points per game on 60% True Shooting at 31% usage, and say, this guy gets buckets. But how exactly does he do this? Mitchell’s player comparison for his scoring profile looks pretty similar to Jalen Brunson's. This isn’t a player comparison, where I think Ajay Mitchell will ever be a top-5 finisher in NBA MVP voting, but both players share the lower volume, high percentage 3-point shooting, ability to play off two feet, get to the line, and operate in the mid-range out of ball screens. Mitchell is actually taller than Brunson at 6’3” without shoes, and he also has a wingspan of 6’6”. The shooting is pretty simple, as before this season Mitchell had struggled to shoot the three ball, but after being a good free throw shooter for the past three years, Mitchell upped his 3-point percentage to 39% this season, on fairly difficult attempts. He was often run off of multiple screens to get open and was able to quickly set his feet, as well as shooting a fair bit of pull-up threes. Off the catch, his form looks great as well and will help his ability to play as a combo guard at the next level.

Mitchell not only shoots it well, but he is fantastic at leveraging that shooting and understanding how to break down his defenders when they are worried about his shot to get inside the paint and score. He deploys a bevy of different moves to get to the rim, but what is most apparent is his change of speeds in the mid-range, which is the skill that reminds me most of Jalen Brunson. He was often able to play off two feet and get to the free-throw line as well. He is still learning some of the so-called “dark arts” to get to the line but he already shoots 6 free throws per game. He is awesome at using a ball screen to find open space in either the mid-range or toward the rim where his touch is also good. Mitchell finished the season 60% at the rim, which is even more impressive as teams often sold out to stop him get to the rim. The only negative in his game as the scorer is simply his limitations as an athlete. Mitchell is by no means a bad athlete, but against some of the most twitchy defenders in the NBA, he likely won’t be able to separate. I doubt he sees a lot of those matchups from night to night, but it is something that puts more of a harder cap on his offensive ceiling.

Positional Versatility:

I already mentioned Mitchell’s ability to play off the ball, which is realistically a path for him to play in the NBA. The skill that could turn Mitchell into a quality starter in the NBA is his passing. While he technically played point guard at Santa Barbara, Mitchell is clearly wired to score more. He isn’t an old-school pure point who breaks down the defense and is purely focused on getting other players involved. Ajay passes when a teammate is wide open, or when he has collapsed the defense enough to make a good kick-out. Mitchell is fantastic at throwing lobs as well, and not only places them well but has good vision for when to throw the lob. He has great touch on his passes and can throw them off of either hand, which will help him deal with different kinds of defensive schemes.

This ability to make plays along with playing off the ball due to his shooting combined with his solid size opens up a lot of intrigue. Could Mitchell play the two next to another guard, who might be a better point-of-attack defender than him like Jrue Holiday? I’d say most likely. Could Mitchell play next to a wing-creator who needs the ball in their hands while being a secondary ball handler like Kawhi Leonard? Probably. Could Mitchell run bench units as a primary scorer and creator surrounded by shooters? I also think he could do this. Mitchell’s versatility on offense is evident and opens up so many possibilities for teams to play different lineups with him.

Defense While Being a Star:

A lot of these low major stars who put up huge numbers like Mitchell are often pretty poor defenders, and won’t make the NBA for that reason. Fortunately for Ajay, he is already a solid defender. His on-ball defense is quite good. He has super active hands and looks well-coached, along with sliding well. His burst isn’t always elite, but if he can compete with the initial first step he often is then able to have a good on-ball rep. He contest shots as well, but he also doesn’t jump too early and fall for lots of pump-fakes.

Off of the ball is where I have some more concerns. Mitchell generally has good screen navigation which can lend him to be good at guarding DHOs, but he often closes out pretty slowly and not with a whole of urgency. This becomes more important in the NBA where more players can put the ball on the floor and shoot it, so Mitchell has to clean up this part of his game to play playoff minutes in the NBA. There is a chance this trait could go away when he isn’t asked to have a 31% usage on the offensive end, but for now it is something he has to improve on to get playing time early.

He doesn’t rotate poorly and is often in the right place, he just has to speed up his rotations. A huge plus right now for Mitchell is his rebounding. He had a defensive rebounding rate of 13% which was a huge improvement from his 8% the previous year. He is very clearly good at leveraging one of his arms to box out while going up for a board, and also highpoints the ball well. He offered nothing as an offensive rebounder at a dreadful 0.9% but I wouldn't expect a player at his usage to have a particularly high rate on that end. Only time will tell if offensive rebounding just isn’t a skill he has, or if he wasn’t able to do it due to his role.

Outlook and Projection:

Ajay Mitchell is a player who I believe has a lot of promise as a long-term rotation player with upside, with a very high floor as a combo guard. His scoring ability and shooting combined with his ability to create for others will allow him to play multiple roles on an NBA floor, along with having some upside on defense. I currently have him 25 on my personal Big Board, and I believe any team that needs a scoring punch in a win-now situation could use his skills. A team like Denver could pair him in lineups as a potential replacement or upgrade for Reggie Jackson, as he could operate in two-man actions with Jokic, or play off-the-ball next to Jamal Murray. The Bucks could also get him at either number 23 or 33, and his ability to play next to Giannis as a floor spacer who can also keep the ball moving would be exciting. I believe his defensive upside is also higher than some other guards in this range Millauake could be looking at like Tyler Kolek. He also had a workout with Minnesota, and that is another destination that could use him as a combo guard and potential replacement for Monte Morris. Overall I am very excited for Ajay Mitchell, and I believe he could have some real staying power in the league as a rotation guard, along with some upside as a starter.